Experts Say Oil Prices Could Surge 80 Percent After Strikes On Iran—Stock Futures Already Diving

This article was originally published on Inc.com.

Wall Street could be in for a rough Monday following the start of “major combat operations” by the US and Israel against Iran early Saturday.

Stock futures were sharply lower Sunday evening, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average forecasting an implied open that was more than 500 points lower than Friday’s close (or roughly one percent). S&P 500 futures were set to fall 65 points, a bit less than one percent, while the Nasdaq 100 futures were down more than 237 points, roughly one percent.

Oil prices, meanwhile, spiked sharply higher. US Crude was up nearly eight percent in early trading, topping $72 per barrel. That would bring it to its highest level since last August. Gas, at that time period, averaged $3.16 per gallon, according to AAA. Current prices are averaging $2.98.

As with any futures trading, the numbers are expected to fluctuate wildly before the markets open Monday morning. Early stock futures were showing heavier losses (with the Dow initially showing an implied open that was over 1,100 points lower) and oil prices saw bigger gains initially, but both settled slightly in the first half hour of trading Sunday night.

The bigger question on investors’ minds is less about what happens Monday, but rather what will occur in the days and weeks to come, especially when it comes to oil. Most traders are keeping a very close eye on the Strait of Hormuz, which saw roughly 14.5 million barrels transmitted per day in 2025. (The majority of that goes to Asia, with just four percent going to the Americas.)

Should the Strait be completely blocked, Bloomberg Economics estimates oil prices could spike as high as $108 per barrel, an 80 percent increase. At present, analysts say the Strait has effectively come to a stop as shipping companies take precautionary measures. Danish container shipping giant Maersk, for instance, announced Sunday it is suspending all vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz until further notice, which could cause delays and shortages.

The government could ease any surge in pump prices by drawing from the US strategic petroleum reserve, but the Financial Times reported Saturday there were no plans to release any of that oil at present.

Will Stocks Rebound?

This, of course, isn’t the first time the US' Trump administration has ordered an attack on Iran. And despite what the early futures indicate, stocks can be very fluid in a war scenario. On June 22 of last year, Trump ordered strikes on three of Iran’s nuclear sites. When stocks finished trading on the first market day after those attacks, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had gained 375 points, the Nasdaq was up 184 and the S&P 500 had jumped 57 points.

Today, all major market indices are notably higher than they were at the time of those attacks. The Dow and Nasdaq are 15 percent higher and the S&P 500 has seen subsequent gains of 14 percent.

That’s not unusual. While stocks sometimes take a small (and occasionally steep) dive after a major global event, due to the uncertainty of the situation, they tend to rebound fairly quickly and hold those gains. January’s military strike in Venezuela was shrugged off by markets, with the Dow gaining 595 points and the S&P seeing a 44-point increase.

When the US killed Qasem Soleimani, an Iranian major general, via a drone strike in January 2020, the S&P fell 0.7 percent, but rebounded within six days and has gained 113 percent in the years since. The attacks of 9/11 caused a one-day loss of 4.9 percent, but the market recovered within 31 days.

Major actions in the Middle East with long-term military consequences, however, can be a bit more worrisome to investors. And conflicts that impact oil prices or that take place in key global regions amp up fears. When Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990, shares on the S&P 500 only fell 1.1 percent, but continued to fall for 71 days, eventually seeing that index lose 16.9 percent of its value.

189 days later, however, it had recovered.