The Road Ahead: Ruminations On The Next Era Of Mobility

We commute more than we realize or like to admit (spending the equivalent of a two-week holiday on the road annually, in addition to flight travel), and we often navigate modern life without pausing to consider this daily routine. Whether driving from home to work, tapping into a ride-hailing app, or using public transit, mobility is ingrained in our everyday existence.

Yet, not so long ago, commuting as we know it was non-existent. The New York Times dubbed driving as the “cultural anomaly of our moment.” Before mass production of the internal combustion engine (ICE) brought cars into the mainstream, travel was arduous. Leaving one’s town or village was a significant undertaking, factoring in cost, time, safety, and logistics.

Pre-ICE, daily life didn’t necessitate the commuting we consider “normal” today. Work, shopping, and social visits were walkable, meaning “micromobility” was not a convenience, but a way of life. Today, micromobility has us imagining booking scooters via apps, or unlocking bikes by tapping our smartphones. However, centuries ago, micromobility was simply the norm.

The concept of the “15-minute city,” with key amenities within a 15-minute walk or bike ride, is often touted as a modern innovation. In reality, it is how our ancestors lived. As we navigate an increasingly digitized world, where work, social, and consumer interactions can be conducted online, we must consider whether human mobility’s evolution will maintain the trajectory set by the Industrial Revolution, or revert back to how we lived for millennia.

A few years ago, the answer might have seemed obvious – until a global pandemic forced us to reevaluate our need for constant movement, with three billion people globally limiting their daily commutes due to lockdowns. The rise of hybrid work models enabled by better, smoother technologies made us – perhaps for the first time – question the necessity of daily commutes.

Work-related travel, once routine in professional life, has become intensely scrutinized. Companies now impose stricter travel rules, shifting conversations from “Do we enjoy work trips?” to “Is this travel even necessary?”

While many have returned to pre-pandemic routines, younger generations have embraced virtual environments, where seamless connection and engagement happen from the comfort of home. Virtual reality (VR) and augmented reality (AR), driven by rapid advancements in hardware and software (think Meta Quest and Apple Vision Pro), have introduced a new paradigm of long-distance human interaction – one that requires no travel at all. In a recent survey, 46 percent of Gen-Zers reported that they believe the metaverse will be part of their job in the future.

As these trends unfold and technology shrinks distances to create a “global village,” we ask ourselves: What will mobility look like over the next decade?

The mobility sector is expected to shift considerably, driven by various factors. These include growing demand for efficient transport, rapid urbanization, increasing regulatory and consumer pressure for sustainability, and a heightened focus on technological integration and connectivity.

Mobility-tech startups are already responding. Early in the value chain, technologies such as AR, VR, and digital twins are transforming production and sales, while artificial intelligence (AI) is optimizing manufacturing. Generative AI is pushing boundaries by discovering lighter, stronger, and more sustainable vehicle materials. Advances in material sciences – plus additive manufacturing and digital twin technology – are redefining vehicle manufacturing, as the production of safer, high-performance vehicles gets faster and more efficient.

On the road, AI is unlocking unprecedented efficiency levels via vehicle predictive maintenance and improving workflow efficiency, leading to a more than 20 percent increase in equipment availability and up to a 25 percent reduction in inspection costs. AI also boosts innovation in route optimization solutions and enhanced mobility experiences. With vehicle digitization, technologies such as edge computing, light detection and ranging (LiDAR), and vehicle telemetry are ushering in a new era of mobility – more connected, safer, cost-effective, and sustainable.

Advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) are also pushing boundaries, bringing us closer to the once unimaginable world of autonomous driving. Driverless cars will soon transform commutes, offering people the freedom to work, relax, socialize, or be entertained during transit. Human operators should expect significant help managing vehicle fleets via autonomous driving systems, predicting vehicle faults, and overseeing drivers’ adherence to safety protocols.

With transport accounting for 24 percent of total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions globally, of which 56 percent relate to passenger mobility, the net zero transition is helping transform every aspect of mobility. For example, the shift to electric vehicles (EVs) is accelerating across all transport modes, from passenger cars to buses and even electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft in the emerging advanced air mobility space.

Shared mobility is redefining our attitudes to vehicle ownership, especially amid growing urbanization. By embracing shared mobility, cities can alleviate the strain on streets and infrastructure, reducing traffic congestion and lowering emissions. Mobility-as-a-service (MaaS) solutions enable more efficient vehicle use by offering flexible alternatives that maximize resource utilization, thus reducing private car ownership needs. This shift is tackling overcrowded streets and paving the way for smarter, more sustainable urban mobility systems better equipped to handle future population growth.

In regions such as sub-Saharan Africa, vehicle affordability remains a key challenge. Entrepreneurs are responding with creative financing solutions that blend mobility and fintech, ranging from rent-now-pay-later models to flexible vehicle financing agreements.

In the MEA, where 55 percent of people already live in urban areas, the projected population increase to 3.4 million by 2050 means much of this growth will occur in cities, further straining urban centers and mobility systems. In response, mobility tech startups are developing multiple hardware and software solutions, from advanced air mobility to micromobility and MaaS across the region. The MEA, with its diverse challenges, a rich ecosystem of solution providers, and a myriad of investment opportunities, is well positioned to transform its own mobility landscape, and significantly influence the evolution of global mobility.

In a sector attracting US$273.6 billion globally over the past five years, emerging markets are well-positioned to lead the change in tech-centered solutions. These innovators are not only creating solutions where they are most needed, but enhancing connectivity between different transport systems and improving the financial accessibility of mobility. The MEA’s mobility-tech sector will be pivotal in reaching the one billion people worldwide who lack proper access to road infrastructure.

As we consider these transformative trends, will the MEA fulfill its potential to influence global mobility? And what will the overall direction be – in line with pre-pandemic norms, or will the future of mobility revert to where we started? Time will tell.

This article first appeared in the October issue of Inc. Arabia magazine. To read the full issue online, click here.