The Industries Most At Risk As The Middle East Conflict Disrupts Trade
As shipping through the Strait of Hormuz gets disrupted, supply chain data shows which industries—and S&P 500 companies—face the greatest risk.
On February 28, 2026, US and Israeli strikes against Iran marked a major escalation, setting off a region‑wide conflict that, three weeks later, has seen attacks and counterattacks spread to neighboring countries, including Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, and the United Arab Emirates. The fighting has rippled through global commerce, disrupting air travel and nearly halting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which borders Iran and Oman and connects Persian Gulf nations to the rest of the world.
As the fighting enters its third week, Inc. asked Interos.AI, an Arlington, Virginia-based supply chain intelligence company that placed No. 1,952 on the Inc. 5000 in 2023, to look into the industries most likely to be affected, based on shipping records known as bills of lading that track goods moving through global trade routes.
Ted Krantz, the CEO of Interos.AI, tells Inc. that 25 percent of the world’s oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz. With ongoing economic tensions between the US and China, he believes we’re seeing early signs that “the weaponization of global supply chains has begun.”
Imports to the US from the Middle East represent about two percent of America’s overall imports, including less than 10 percent of imported oil, but certain industries are likely to see their supply chains disrupted. Business leaders have been bracing for rising oil prices since the start of the conflict. The American Farm Bureau has already raised concerns about shortages of chemicals used in fertilizers ahead of the spring planting season.
About 30 percent of S&P 500 companies, a list of the largest public companies in the US, have tier-1 suppliers in the Middle East, meaning they source components or products directly from a country in the Middle East. The top industries with tier-1 suppliers are banking and financial services, followed by electronic component manufacturing and software and IT services. When you look beyond a company’s direct suppliers to its tier‑2 and tier‑3 suppliers—those that provide raw materials or components to tier‑1 vendors—the S&P 500 companies most exposed to the conflict are concentrated in chemical manufacturing, plastic and rubber products, and freight transportation.
Globally, the Middle East exports significant amounts of petroleum, natural gas, and minerals, including producing 53 percent of the world’s boron exports (used in fertilizer and industrial processes like glass manufacturing), sulfur (another fertilizer component), and diamonds. Among the most common imports from other nations into the Middle East are live sheep and sheep meat, ammunition, jewelry, and diamonds. Countries in the Middle East account for about three percent of American exports.
See the full data set below. Note that the Middle East is defined in this data set as the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Cyprus, Iran, Kuwait, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Palestine, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Israel, Yemen, Lebanon, Oman, Syria, and Azerbaijan.
